For nearly two years, home values plummeted to pre-2003 levels. Now, housing markets within the country are showing the first signs of stabilizing.
Of course, each housing market is regional and varies greatly from the other. Still, there are indicators home owners can rely on to see whether their home values are about to rise. Here are six.
The Unemployment Rate
It's quite simple: Without a job, you can't buy a home.
And as the unemployment rate rises, fewer individuals are capable of purchasing a home. That decreases the demand for homes, which drives prices down.
To find a city's unemployment rate, and whether it's rising or falling, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics' web site.
Also, see if local businesses are hiring and if large corporations are moving into the area. More jobs leads to more employees who end up increasing demand for real estate in the area.
Rising incomes
House hunters who want to dig a little deeper can look at the average or median change in income among households in a particular neighborhood.
At a minimum, confirm that incomes are being adjusted for inflation (or ideally rising). Homeowners who have stagnant or decreasing salaries may not have much cash left over after they pay their mortgage; as a result, they might not maintain their homes or stay on top of repairs, which could lower a home's value and even its neighboring homes' values, says Zandi.
Fewer Foreclosure Filings & Sales
On average, foreclosed homes sell for 30% less than similar homes in the same area, although the figure varies by housing market, says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.com, which tracks foreclosures. In areas hit hardest, especially cities in Sunbelt states, foreclosed homes often sell at half the price.
clear pixel
As foreclosures increase, they drag the average price of homes in a neighborhood down.
Declining inventory
In most areas where 'For Sale' signs are common, home prices are far from recovery.
In general, when more than 2% of homes in a neighborhood are selling at the same time, inventory is high, says Dean Baker, a co-director at the left-leaning Center for Economic Policy and Research. As the number of homes for sale decrease, sellers have more leverage and a better shot at getting an offer close to their asking price.
Look at the month's supply of inventory, or how many months it will take at the current sales place for inventory to be depleted. Five to six months is the normal range, but we're averaging just under 10 months, says DeVol. (This varies by metropolitan area.) Also, areas without new housing construction will likely see a recovery first since they have less inventory to sell, says Zandi.
Shrinking list-to-sales price ratios
On a national level, homes are selling at around 5% to 10% below their asking price, says Baker.
Look at list-to-sales price ratios, which is the difference between the listing price of a home and the price at which it sold. If the price difference is shrinking for an area that suggests the real estate market is improving, says Michael Evans, the president of the American Society of Appraisers and owner of Chico, Calif.-based Evans Appraisal Service, which appraises residential properties.
Decreasing sales price
On the other hand, decreasing sales prices could mean that the housing market has hit its bottom, says Baker. They also guarantee that the buyer is getting into a market at a fraction of the price that buyers paid during the bubble.
在近兩年的時間裏,美國房價急劇下滑至2003年之前的水平。如今,美國各地住房市場正顯現出持穩的初步跡象。
dangran,meigezhufangshichangdoushiquyuxingde,bicizhijiancunzaixianzhechayi。danfangwusuoyouzhehaishikeyigenjuyixiezhibiao,panduantamendezhufangshifouhuishengzhi。yixiajiushinifangzijiangyaoshengzhide6個跡象。
失業率
這個道理很簡單:沒有工作,你就不可能買房子。
隨著失業率上升,買得起房子的個人就更少。這降低了住房需求,推動房價走低。
要查詢一個城市的失業率以及是在上升還是下滑,可以上美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)網站查詢。
ciwai,haikeyikankandangdigongsishifouzhengzaizhaopin,daqiyeshifouzaiqianzhigaidiqu。gengduodegongzuogangweiyiweizhegengduoguyuan,zhezuizhonghuitizhengaidiqudefangchanxuqiu。
收入增長
想再深入一點了解情況的有購房意向者可以看看某一街區家庭收入的平均變化或是變化中值。
至少應該確認這些收入是經過通貨膨脹調整的(最好是在不斷上升).穆迪經濟網(Moody's Economy.com)首席經濟學家讚迪(Mark Zandi)說,那些薪酬停滯或出現下降的購房者在支付了月供之後可能就沒剩下多少現金了;因此,他們可能不會維修他們的房屋,或是聽之任之;這會降低房屋的價值,甚至是臨近房屋的價值。
較少的止贖申請和出售
追蹤止贖問題的RealtyTrac.com高級副總裁沙爾加(Rick Sharga)說,平均而言,止贖房屋的售價會比同一地區的類似房屋低30%,danjutishujuhuisuizhebutongshichangeryousuobianhua。zaizhufangshichangzaoshouzhongchuangdediqu,youqishizaimeiguonanbuhexinanzhuzhou,zhishufangwutongchangdoushianzhaobanjiachushou。
隨著止贖住房增加,它們會拖累同一街區的平均房價走低。
庫存不斷減少
大多數頻繁見到"房屋出售"標誌的地區,房價距離回升還很遠。
立場偏左的智庫機構經濟與政策研究中心(Center for Economic Policy and Research)聯席主管貝克(Dean Baker)說,總的來說,如果一個街區同時有超過2%的(de)房(fang)子(zi)在(zai)掛(gua)牌(pai)出(chu)售(shou),那(na)麼(me)此(ci)地(di)房(fang)屋(wu)庫(ku)存(cun)量(liang)就(jiu)很(hen)高(gao)。隨(sui)著(zhe)出(chu)售(shou)的(de)房(fang)屋(wu)數(shu)量(liang)下(xia)降(jiang),賣(mai)房(fang)者(zhe)就(jiu)有(you)更(geng)多(duo)的(de)議(yi)價(jia)權(quan),更(geng)有(you)可(ke)能(neng)達(da)成(cheng)接(jie)近(jin)他(ta)們(men)要(yao)價(jia)的(de)交(jiao)易(yi)。
你應該看看這個月的房屋庫存供應,看看這些庫存按照當前的銷售狀況需要多少個月才能消化。獨立經濟智庫機構米爾肯研究所(Milken Institute)的地區經濟研究主管德沃爾(Ross DeVol)說,正常水平是5-6個月,但我們目前的平均水平是略低於10個月。(大城市地區情況會有所不同。)此外,讚迪說,那些沒有新住房建設項目的地區可能會率先迎來房市複蘇,因為這些地區可供出售的庫存量較少。
售價折扣幅度縮小
貝克說,從全美標準來看,目前房屋的實際售價都比房主的要價低5%-10%.
你可以看看房屋出售報價和實際售價之間的價差。美國評估師協會(American Society of Appraisers)總裁埃文斯(Michael Evans)說,如果某一地區這一價差不斷縮小,那麼就表明該地區房產市場正在好轉。他擁有的加州Evans Appraisal Service提供住房地產評估服務。
房屋售價不斷下滑
beikeshuo,lingyifangmian,fangwushoujiabuduanxiajiangkenengyiweizhezhufangshichangyijingchudi。tamenhaibaozhenglexianzairushidegoufangzhezhixuyaozhifupaomoshiqideyibufenjiagejiukeyimaidaofangzi。
手機版







