this is the Age of the Incredible Shrinking Everything. Home prices, the stock market, G.D.P., corporate profits, employment: they’re all a fraction of what they once were. Yet amid this carnage there is one thing that, surprisingly, has continued to grow: the paycheck of the average worker. Companies are slashing payrolls: 3.6 million people have lost their jobs since the recession started, with half of those getting laid off in just the past three months. Yet average hourly wages jumped almost four per cent in the past year. It’s harder and harder to find and keep a job, but if you’ve got one you may well be making more than you did twelve months ago.

This combination of rising unemployment and higher wages seems improbable. But, as it turns out, it’s what history would lead us to expect. Even during the early years of the Great Depression, manufacturing workers actually saw their real wages rise, and wage cuts have been scarce in every recession since. Oil and wheat prices may rise and fall instantaneously to reflect supply and demand, but wages are “sticky”: even when the economy goes bad, it takes a lot to make them fall.

It’s not because businesses are generous that wages are sticky; it’s because employers are worried. In part, bosses are afraid of what economists call “adverse selection”: if they cut wages, it’s the least productive workers who would be the most likely to stay, while the best workers would start looking elsewhere. (Even in a weak economy, businesses still compete for talent.) In a 1997 study of almost two hundred employers, the economists Carl Campbell and Kunal Kamlani found that the threat of losing their best employees was a major reason that bosses didn’t cut wages.

Even more important is the impact of wage cuts on morale. After the 1990-91 recession, the economist Truman Bewley interviewed managers and labor officials at more than two hundred companies and found that most believed that wage cuts wreck employee morale and eat away at productivity. Whatever money they’d save by cutting wages, bosses assume, would be cancelled out by the decline in effort and the breakdown of trust that wage cuts would create. Not everyone believes this: in the past month, both Hewlett-Packard and FedEx have announced plans for pay cuts. But generally, when sales and profits drop, wages aren’t cut, even in firms undergoing layoffs. Of course, layoffs don’t exactly help morale, but, as one of the bosses that Bewley interviewed coldly put it, they “get the misery out the door.” Cutting wages keeps the misery around.

Today’s sticky wages aren’t just the result of custom, though. They’ve also stayed high because of the most unusual aspect of this recession: even as the economy has cratered, American workers have become more productive, not less. Productivity—how much output workers produce per hour of work—is the key to a healthy economy. Historically, productivity has been “procyclical”: it rose during booms and fell during recessions. But not this time. Even as the economy did a cliff dive in the last quarter, productivity rose an impressive 3.1 per cent. And since, in theory, workers get paid more the more productive they are, their increased productivity has helped them avoid pay cuts.

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In times as grim as these, stable wages and higher productivity seem like good things. But they come at a price. The reason that companies have remained so productive despite the slowdown has a lot to do with one of the most celebrated efficiency gains of recent years: the so-called just-in-time economy. In past recessions, companies often delayed firing people, because, in their uncertainty over the precise state of their business, they preferred to keep people around rather than go to the trouble of firing them and having to hire replacements later. In economist-speak, companies “hoarded labor.” But during the past two decades companies have got significantly better at responding quickly to changes in the marketplace. Retailers carry less inventory; manufacturers have shorter lead times on production. This made the system as a whole more efficient, and each individual worker more productive. But it has also made redundant workers more expendable, and labor hoarding a thing of the past.

Bad times have always meant job losses, of course. But what’s distinctive about the speed and depth of today’s job cuts is that, even before the recession hit, American companies were, by historical standards, running lean operations. While the economy grew at a respectable rate for much of this decade, hiring did not. So one might have thought that companies would have had less room to slash payrolls, since they were already relatively slim. Instead, the same companies that were slow to hire after the last recession have been fast to fire during this one. G.D.P., after all, actually grew for much of 2008. Yet every month companies were cutting jobs. And after the credit crisis erupted, in September, companies wasted no time: as fast as consumer spending was plummeting, businesses were cutting payrolls even more aggressively. Companies have always wanted to do more with less; nowadays it’s a positive obsession.

For the employed, then, this recession may be less than awful—if, that is, you can forget about the value of your home and your 401(k). But the very factors that benefit people with jobs—higher productivity and sticky wages—make prospects bleaker for those without them. That’s one reason that it was important for the stimulus package to extend and increase unemployment benefits, as well as create jobs. We’re a more productive, more efficient economy than ever, but that’s cold comfort when you’re on the dole.

這是一個一切都縮水的時代
，房地產價格，股票市場
，GDP，公司利潤
，就業率：這(zhe)些(xie)通(tong)通(tong)都(dou)變(bian)成(cheng)了(le)曾(zeng)經(jing)的(de)一(yi)小(xiao)部(bu)分(fen)。令(ling)人(ren)驚(jing)奇(qi)的(de)是(shi)，在(zai)這(zhe)場(chang)大(da)衰(shuai)退(tui)中(zhong)
，有(you)一(yi)項(xiang)東(dong)西(xi)繼(ji)續(xu)在(zai)增(zeng)長(chang)，那(na)就(jiu)是(shi)熟(shu)練(lian)工(gong)人(ren)的(de)薪(xin)水(shui)。公(gong)司(si)縮(suo)減(jian)了(le)工(gong)資(zi)名(ming)單(dan)：自從經濟衰退開始

，已經有360萬人失業，其中一半人是在剛剛過去的三個月裏丟掉了工作。然而，平均每小時的工資在去年增長了差不多4%。找工作變得越來越難，但是如果你已經有一份工作的話
，你可能比十二個月以前掙得更多。

這(zhe)種(zhong)高(gao)失(shi)業(ye)率(lv)和(he)高(gao)工(gong)資(zi)的(de)組(zu)合(he)看(kan)起(qi)來(lai)有(you)些(xie)不(bu)可(ke)思(si)議(yi)，但(dan)是(shi)
，這(zhe)是(shi)被(bei)曆(li)史(shi)所(suo)證(zheng)明(ming)的(de)事(shi)實(shi)。即(ji)使(shi)在(zai)上(shang)世(shi)紀(ji)的(de)大(da)蕭(xiao)條(tiao)時(shi)期(qi)，產(chan)業(ye)工(gong)人(ren)的(de)工(gong)資(zi)也(ye)是(shi)在(zai)上(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)，在(zai)衰(shuai)退(tui)時(shi)減(jian)薪(xin)是(shi)罕(han)見(jian)的(de)。石(shi)油(you)和(he)小(xiao)麥(mai)的(de)價(jia)格(ge)會(hui)隨(sui)著(zhe)供(gong)求(qiu)關(guan)係(xi)的(de)變(bian)化(hua)而(er)變(bian)化(hua)
，但(dan)是(shi)工(gong)資(zi)是(shi)“剛性的”：即使當經濟形勢不好的時候
，想要讓降薪也是很困難的。

工資的“剛性”並不是因為商人慷慨
，這是因為雇主擔心被經濟學家稱為的“逆向選擇”：一旦降薪
，越平庸的工人越可能留下，而越是出色的工人越可能跳槽。（即使是在經濟形勢不好的時候，商業的競爭就是人才的競爭。）在 1997年的一項研究中
，經濟學家Carl Campbell 和Kunal Kamlani 發現老板不去降薪最大的原因就是怕失去他們最好的員工。

更重要的是降薪會影響士氣。經曆1990到1991年的衰退之後
，經濟學家Truman Bewley 和超過200家jia公gong司si的de經jing理li和he人ren事shi主zhu管guan麵mian談tan之zhi後hou發fa現xian大da多duo數shu人ren認ren為wei降jiang薪xin會hui有you損sun士shi氣qi並bing最zui終zhong影ying響xiang生sheng產chan。老lao板ban們men認ren為wei降jiang薪xin省sheng下xia來lai的de開kai支zhi會hui被bei降jiang薪xin所suo引yin發fa的de工gong作zuo效xiao率lv和he信xin任ren的de減jian損sun所suo抵di消xiao。並bing不bu是shi每mei個ge老lao板ban都dou相xiang信xin這zhe一yi套tao，上shang個ge月yueHewlett-Packard 和 FedEx liangjiagongsijiuxuanbujiangxin。danshi，yibanlaishuodangxiaoshouhelirunxiajiangdeshihou
，jishiqucaiyuanyebunengjiangxin。dangran，caiyuanduishiqiyemeihaochu，danshizhengruyigelaobanBewley在采訪中所說的那樣“裁員的苦惱在公司外，降薪的苦惱在公司內部。”

雖然如今工資的剛性並不僅僅是慣例的結果，水平的工資是又有經濟衰退期不尋常的景象所致：經濟衰退時，美國工人的工作效率更高了，而不是更低。生產效率（工人每小時的產出）是shi健jian康kang經jing濟ji的de關guan鍵jian。從cong曆li史shi的de角jiao度du看kan，工gong作zuo效xiao率lv是shi循xun環huan的de，經jing濟ji繁fan榮rong是shi增zeng長chang，經jing濟ji衰shuai退tui時shi下xia降jiang。但dan這zhe次ci不bu是shi
，即ji使shi經jing濟ji在zai上shang個ge季ji度du跳tiao水shui的de時shi候hou
，生sheng產chan效xiao率lv還hai是shi增zeng長chang了le3.1%。理論上講
，工人效率越高工資越高，正是生產效率的提高避免了減薪。

在如此嚴酷的時期內，穩定的工資和高效率也是好的。但這也是有代價的，公司在衰退中保持高效率和近年來取得的一項成果有關：它被稱為“及時經濟”(“just-in-time economy”)
，在zai以yi往wang的de衰shuai退tui中zhong，公gong司si常chang常chang推tui遲chi裁cai員yuan，因yin為wei他ta們men對dui公gong司si的de狀zhuang況kuang還hai不bu是shi很hen確que定ding
，他ta們men把ba員yuan工gong留liu下xia來lai以yi免mian陷xian入ru今jin天tian裁cai員yuan明ming天tian就jiu要yao雇gu人ren代dai替ti的de麻ma煩fan之zhi中zhong。用yong經jing濟ji學xue術shu語yu叫jiao公gong司si儲chu備bei勞lao動dong力li。但dan是shi在zai過guo去qu二er十shi年nian間jian，公gong司si對dui市shi場chang變bian化hua采cai取qu更geng為wei迅xun速su的de反fan應ying會hui更geng好hao一yi些xie。零ling售shou商shang少shao存cun貨huo
，製zhi造zao商shang縮suo短duan製zhi造zao周zhou期qi。這zhe使shi係xi統tong作zuo為wei一yi個ge整zheng體ti更geng加jia有you效xiao率lv，每mei個ge工gong人ren更geng加jia有you工gong作zuo效xiao率lv。但dan這zhe使shi得de多duo餘yu的de工gong人ren越yue發fa昂ang貴gui，存cun蓄xu勞lao動dong力li成cheng為wei過guo去qu。

dangran，shuaituiqiyiweizheshiye。danshiqubiezaiyucaiyuansuduheshendu
，yiqiandangjingjishuairuoxilai，meiguogongsidoubaochizuishaoguyuandeyunzhuan。erjingjizaizhegeshiniandabufendoubaochilezengchang。danshigongzuoquemeiyouzengchang。suoyiyourenhuirenweigongsimenyijingmeiyoukongjianzaisuojiantamendegongzidanle，yinweitamenyijinghen“瘦”了。相反
，上一次衰退事裁員速度很慢的公司這次裁員都很快。畢竟
，GDP在08nianshijishangzengchangle，danshimeiyuedouyougongsizaicaiyuan。xinyongweijijiuyuebaofazhihou，gongsimenmeiyoulangfeishijian
，hexiaofeizhesuojianhuafeiyiyangkuai，gongsicaiyuanshenzhigengweimenglie。gongsixiangyaozuogengduo，rujinzheshiyigejijidesixiang。

對於那些有工作的人來說，這次經濟衰退還沒那麼可怕
，至少可以讓你忘卻房子和汽油的價格。但是正是使得有工作的人收益的因素——高效率和剛性工資——使(shi)得(de)失(shi)業(ye)者(zhe)的(de)前(qian)景(jing)更(geng)加(jia)暗(an)淡(dan)。這(zhe)也(ye)正(zheng)是(shi)增(zeng)加(jia)失(shi)業(ye)者(zhe)福(fu)利(li)和(he)創(chuang)造(zao)就(jiu)業(ye)機(ji)會(hui)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)原(yuan)因(yin)。我(wo)們(men)比(bi)以(yi)往(wang)更(geng)有(you)效(xiao)率(lv)
，但(dan)是(shi)對(dui)於(yu)那(na)些(xie)領(ling)取(qu)失(shi)業(ye)救(jiu)濟(ji)金(jin)的(de)人(ren)來(lai)說(shuo)起(qi)不(bu)到(dao)任(ren)何(he)安(an)慰(wei)作(zuo)用(yong)。

金融危機來襲
，為什麼老板們選擇裁員而不是降薪？為什麼經濟大蕭條薪水反漲？著篇文章告訴你答案。