For more than a year, food manufacturers have been shaving package sizes and raising prices, declaring that they had little choice because of unprecedented increases in the cost of raw ingredients like corn, soybeans and wheat.

    Now, with the price of grains and other commodities plunging, it may seem logical that grocery prices will follow. But while prices for some items like milk and fresh produce are dropping, those of most packaged items and meat are holding firm or even increasing. Experts warn that consumers should not expect lower prices anytime soon on most items at the grocery store or in restaurants.

    Government and industry economists project that the overall cost of food will continue to climb in 2009, led by increases for meat and poultry. A big reason, they say, is that food companies still have not caught up with the prolonged run-up in commodity prices, which remain above historical averages despite coming down from their highs early this year.

    The Agriculture Department is forecasting that food prices will increase 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2009, compared with an estimated 5 to 6 percent increase by the end of this year.

    Some economists project even steeper increases next year. For instance, Bill Lapp, principal at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, said he expected food prices to jump 7 to 9 percent next year.

    “For the last 21 months, food manufacturers, restaurants and livestock producers have been absorbing significant costs that in my view are likely to be passed on to consumers in 2009 and beyond,” said Mr. Lapp, a former chief economist at ConAgra Foods.

    While predicting future food prices is an inexact science, data released by the Labor Department last week suggested the forecasters might be right.

    Overall consumer prices recorded the biggest drop in the history of the Consumer Price Index, but food prices continued to inch upward, albeit at a slower pace than in previous months. The C.P.I. showed that grocery prices rose 0.1 percent in October.

    Some of the more visible items on grocery shelves, including produce and dairy products, dropped sharply in recent weeks, but not enough to offset the general trend of rising prices. Restaurant prices rose 0.5 percent in October.

    Commodity prices began climbing rapidly in the fall of 2007, and food companies were hit hard by the increases. They tried to slow eroding profit margins by cutting operating costs, making packages smaller and raising prices.

    Some companies, like Kellogg and Heinz, have managed to offset the higher ingredient costs and post robust profits by using shrewd commodity hedges and by raising prices without losing many customers. They also benefited from a trend of consumers eating out less and buying more groceries.

    But other food companies have struggled. Hershey, for instance, locked in high cocoa prices this year only to see prices drop this fall, analysts say. And meat and poultry companies have been hit by higher feed costs and a limited ability to charge higher prices, at least in the short term.

    Now, even though costs for ingredients like corn and wheat have dropped, meat and poultry providers say they still have not raised prices enough to cover their increased costs. And packaged food manufacturers are unlikely to lower prices because commodity costs remain relatively high and they are still trying to rebuild eroded margins.

    Michael Mitchell, a spokesman for Kraft Foods, said that the company’s food ingredient costs this year were running $2 billion higher than in 2007, a 13 percent increase, but that the company had raised its overall prices by only 7 percent.

    William P. Roenigk, senior vice president and chief economist for the National Chicken Council, said his industry had been losing money for more than a year. Chicken producers are now trying to recover those costs by reducing production, which will eventually alter the balance between supply and demand. “The time is coming when we’re going to see a very significant increase in the retail price of chicken,” he said.

    The restaurant industry, which has been battered by a sharp drop in customers, also says it has not been able to raise prices enough to keep pace with the cost of ingredients.

    People in the restaurant business said they did not like raising prices during an economic downturn. “If anything in this environment, one would be looking at the ability to offer much greater emphasis on value pricing in restaurant menus,” said Hudson Riehle, chief economist of the National Restaurant Association. “In contrast, exactly the opposite is happening. Our operators are being forced to raise menu prices at the highest rate since 1990.”

    Predictions about food prices are subject to change because commodity prices are unpredictable. Ephraim Leibtag, an economist for the Agriculture Department, said food inflation would slow by the middle of next year if commodity prices remained low. “Right now the forecast is about 4 percent, but that would be lowered if we do not see any surge in commodity costs over the next few months,” he said.

    A reason that overall food prices are expected to continue increasing is the lag between price increases for basic commodities and for finished food products in the grocery store, particularly for meat and processed foods. Consider the price of corn, an ingredient in things like cereal and breaded shrimp. It was not too long ago that corn hovered around $2 or $3 a bushel.

    But corn prices began climbing last fall and peaked around $8 a bushel in June. They have since dropped to about $3.50 a bushel, still above the historical norm. Some food manufacturers locked in prices for corn and other commodities in the spring and summer, fearing that prices could go even higher. But prices fell instead, and they are now stuck with the higher prices until their contracts expire.

    When costs go up for livestock producers, they are often unable to immediately raise prices because those prices are set on the open market, which is dictated by supply and demand. Instead, they begin reducing the size of their herds or flocks, which eventually leads to less meat on the market and higher prices. But reducing livestock production can take months to years, and in the interim it can actually suppress prices as breeding animals are slaughtered to reduce production.

    The prospect of more food inflation is inflaming a debate over its causes. Many food manufacturers and economists maintain that one culprit is government policies promoting the use of ethanol fuel made from corn.

    About a third of the corn crop is used for ethanol, putting ethanol producers in competition with livestock farmers and food manufacturers. The result, they contend, is that prices for corn are now higher and more volatile.

    “The connection of oil prices to agricultural commodities is new as of 2007, and it’s a major game changer for those in the food production business,” said Thomas E. Elam, president of FarmEcon, a consulting firm.

    But ethanol advocates counter that the food industry’s arguments have been proved false, saying that corn prices have declined as ethanol production is increasing. Matt Hartwig, spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol industry group, said food companies were “very quick to tell the American public that they had to raise food prices because corn was so expensive, and that the reason corn was so expensive was corn-based ethanol.”

    Mr. Hartwig added: “Now, clearly, we know that relationship doesn’t exist. If ethanol isn’t the reason, what is the real reason for food prices going up?”

    一年多以來，食品製造商宣稱
，由於玉米
、大豆和小麥等原料價格空前上漲，他們幾乎沒有選擇
，唯有削減包裝尺寸，抬高價格。

    xianzai

，suizheguwuheqitaxiaofeipinjiagedefeiyueshangsheng，shipinjiagegenzheshangzhangsihudayoukeneng。jinguanyouxiedongxiruniunaiheshuichanpindejiagezhengzaixiajiang
，dandabufendebaozhuangwuherouleidejiageyiranjiantingshenzhihaizaishangsheng。youzhuanjiajinggaoshuo，xiaofeizherenheshihoudoubuyaoshewangzaizahuodianhuofandianlidexiaofeihuihenkuaidiyousuoxiajiang。

    政府和產業經濟學家預言
，食品總成本在2009年nian會hui繼ji續xu爬pa升sheng，肉rou和he禽qin類lei更geng為wei領ling先xian。他ta們men說shuo，一yi個ge最zui大da的de原yuan因yin就jiu是shi，盡jin管guan曾zeng從cong年nian初chu的de高gao價jia位wei跌die落luo，食shi品pin企qi業ye仍reng然ran沒mei有you追zhui趕gan上shang初chu級ji商shang品pin價jia格ge長chang時shi間jian的de升sheng高gao，還hai保bao留liu在zai曆li史shi平ping均jun數shu之zhi上shang。

    農業部門預測，與估計的截至今年年底的5-6%的價格上漲相比較，2009年食品價格將上漲3.5-4.5%。

    還有一些經濟學家預測
，明年上漲的幅度甚至更大。比如，Bill Lapp
，奧馬哈高級經濟研究所的負責人就說，他預計明年食品價格會上升7-9%。

    還有一些經濟學家預測
，明年上漲的幅度甚至更大。比如
，Bill Lapp
，奧馬哈高級經濟研究所的負責人就說，他預計明年食品價格會上升7-9%。

    盡管預報未來食品價格是一門不精確的學問
，但勞工部上周公布的資料卻暗示預測可能是準確的。

    所有零售價格都記載了消費物價指數曆史上的最大下跌幅度，但食品價格卻繼續步步見漲，雖然在先前的幾個月中速度有所減緩。

    雜貨店貨架上更多可見的商品，包括農產品和乳製品，在最近幾周價格跌得很厲害，但不足以抵消價格升高的總體趨勢。10月份，飯店的價格就提高了0.5%。

    農產品價格在2007年秋季開始升得很快，食品企業受到此次物價上漲的嚴重打擊。他們設法通過裁減運營成本
、改小包裝和提高價格來慢慢蠶食利潤空間。

    有you些xie企qi業ye，象xiang家jia樂le氏shi和he亨heng氏shi，通tong過guo運yun用yong精jing明ming的de農nong產chan品pin限xian製zhi和he提ti高gao價jia格ge來lai設she法fa抵di消xiao越yue來lai越yue高gao的de配pei料liao成cheng本ben和he穩wen定ding強qiang勁jin的de利li潤run
，同tong時shi又you不bu致zhi喪sang失shi大da量liang的de消xiao費fei者zhe。他ta們men也ye受shou益yi於yu這zhe一yi趨qu勢shi——消費者外出就餐日益減少而購買更多的食品。

    可ke是shi另ling外wai的de食shi品pin企qi業ye卻que在zai掙zheng紮zha。分fen析xi家jia說shuo，例li如ru好hao時shi公gong司si，巧qiao克ke力li價jia格ge居ju高gao不bu下xia，隻zhi有you在zai這zhe個ge秋qiu季ji才cai看kan到dao有you所suo下xia調tiao。肉rou類lei和he禽qin類lei企qi業ye因yin飼si料liao成cheng本ben越yue來lai越yue高gao、至少在短期內調高價格能力有限而倍受打擊。

    xianzai，jishizhuruyumihexiaomaizhileidenongzuowuchengbenxiadie，rouleiheqinleigongyingshangyehuishuotamenyiranmeiyoubajiagetigaozhizuyijiangtamenzengjialedechengbenbaohanzainei。baozhuangshipinzhizaoshangweibihuijiangdijiage，yinweinongchanpinchengbenyiranbijiaogao，tamenyijiuxiangfangshefazhongjianyuelaiyuexiaodelirunkongjian。

    卡夫食品發言人Michael Mitchell稱
，該公司食品配料成本今年比2007年多花了20億美元，增加了13%
，但公司全部商品價格隻提高了7%。

    William P. Roenigk
，全quan國guo雞ji肉rou理li事shi會hui的de高gao級ji副fu會hui長chang和he首shou席xi經jing濟ji學xue家jia反fan映ying
，他ta的de工gong廠chang虧kui損sun已yi一yi年nian多duo了le。雞ji肉rou生sheng產chan商shang現xian在zai正zheng試shi圖tu通tong過guo減jian產chan來lai彌mi補bu成cheng本ben費fei用yong
，這zhe將jiang最zui終zhong改gai變bian供gong需xu平ping衡heng。“我們將看到雞肉零售價猛升的時刻正在到來。”他說。

    由於顧客銳減而被弄垮的餐飲業也說，他們不可能將價格充分提高以跟上材料成本。

    餐飲行業人士說他們也不願意在經濟低迷時期拉高價格。“如果這種環境下能做什麼的話
，那一定是著眼於大力強調餐廳菜單價值定價的能力。”美國國家餐館協會首席經濟學家Hudson Riehle說。“相反
，現在發生的情況卻恰恰相反。我們的經營者正被迫進行自1990年以來最大幅度的提價。”

    預言食品價格將改變是因為物價不可預知。Ephraim Leibtag，農業部門的一位經濟學家說，如果物價維持在低水平的話，食品通脹到明年年中會減緩。“現在預測為大約4%
，但假如往後幾個月看不到物價飆升，那有可能會低一點。”

    預(yu)期(qi)所(suo)有(you)食(shi)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)繼(ji)續(xu)上(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)一(yi)個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin)就(jiu)是(shi)
，基(ji)本(ben)商(shang)品(pin)和(he)雜(za)貨(huo)店(dian)裏(li)食(shi)品(pin)成(cheng)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)滯(zhi)後(hou)
，尤(you)其(qi)是(shi)肉(rou)和(he)加(jia)工(gong)過(guo)的(de)食(shi)品(pin)。仔(zai)細(xi)看(kan)看(kan)玉(yu)米(mi)，麥(mai)片(pian)粥(zhou)和(he)沾(zhan)滾(gun)過(guo)麵(mian)包(bao)屑(xie)的(de)小(xiao)蝦(xia)之(zhi)類(lei)的(de)配(pei)料(liao)就(jiu)知(zhi)道(dao)了(le)。不(bu)久(jiu)前(qian)玉(yu)米(mi)價(jia)格(ge)還(hai)徘(pai)徊(huai)在(zai)2-3美元一蒲式耳呢。

    不過玉米價格去年秋天就開始攀升了
，6月更是達到了峰頂值——要8美元一蒲式耳。即使價格又回落到3.5meiyuanyipushierle，keyiranhaishigaoyulishibiaozhun。youxieshipinshengchanshangzaichunxialiangjitunjiyumiheqitashangpin
，yinweitamendanxinjiagehuiyuelaiyuegao。danxiangfan，jiagexiadiele，ertamenxianzaihaidefugaoangdejiagezhizhiheyueqiman。

    duishengchuchanchushangjiaeryan
，dangchengbenshangshengshi，tamenchangchangbunenglijitijia，yinweinaxiejiagejianlizaigongkaideyougongxuguanxizhipeideshichangzhishang。tamenquerdaizhide，shikaishijianxiaoniuyangweiyangdeguimo，nazuizhonghuidaozhishichangrouleijianshao、價格上升。但減少牲畜產出也隻能維持幾個月到幾年
，臨時起到實際抑製價格的作用，如果屠殺喂養的動物以減少產出的話。

    更geng大da食shi品pin通tong脹zhang很hen可ke能neng激ji起qi一yi場chang有you關guan其qi原yuan因yin的de大da辯bian論lun。許xu多duo食shi品pin製zhi造zao商shang和he經jing濟ji學xue家jia堅jian持chi，一yi個ge原yuan因yin就jiu是shi政zheng府fu政zheng策ce提ti倡chang大da量liang使shi用yong由you穀gu物wu提ti煉lian而er來lai的de乙yi醇chun燃ran料liao。

    dayuesanfenzhiyidenongzuowubeiyongyuzhizuoyichun
，shideyichunshengchanshangtongshengchunongchangzhuyijishipinzhizaoshangqujingzheng。tamenjingzhengdejieguo，jiushixianzaiguwudejiageyuelaiyuegao
、越來越反複無常了。

    “油價和農業商品的關係不同以往，就象2007年，它是那些食品生產企業的主遊戲操控者。”谘詢公司FarmEcon總裁FarmEcon說。

    但乙醇擁護者反擊，食品工業的爭論是錯誤的
，他們說，當乙醇生產加大時穀物價格卻在跌落。Matt Hartwig

，可再生燃料協會乙醇工業群體的發言人說，食品公司“很快會告訴美國民眾，他們不得不加價是因為穀物是如此昂貴
，穀物如此昂貴的原因就在於基於穀物而生產的乙醇。”

    Hartwig先生補充道：“現在，我們非常清楚地知道，那種關係並不存在。如果乙醇不成其原因

，那食品價格上漲真正的原因是什麼？”