Value and growth investors seldom agree on what's important for evaluating a stock. But here are seven questions every investor, regardless of persuasion, should ask before plunking down money:
1.What does the company do?
Do you know what your company actually does for a living? Is it in a hot growth sector or in a saturated industry whose best growth days are long gone? Or does it make those proverbial buggy whips?
That first question is not as silly as it sounds. Sometimes we become so focused on analyzing the numbers that we forget about the big picture.
You probably know what the company does if you're looking at the likes of Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) or Google (GOOG, news, msgs). But it's a different story when you start examining at lesser-known names. For example, what do Icon (ICLR, news, msgs) and Knoll (KNL, news, msgs) do for a living?
You can find out in a New York minute by checking MSN Money's Company Report pages. Though only one paragraph, each report describes a company's products and/or services in pretty good detail, and it's written in understandable English.
The reports give you more than enough information to gain a feel for the company's products and/or services. For instance, Icon provides outsourced clinical-trial services to pharmaceutical companies, and Knoll makes office furniture.
What do you do with that wisdom? It depends. If you were looking for hot growth stocks, you would probably find Icon of interest but drop Knoll like a hot potato.
On the other hand, value investors, knowing that the market ignores unglamorous industries, seek out stocks such as Knoll in hopes of finding an undervalued gem.
2.How many widgets is it selling?
Companies are in business to sell products and/or services. We're talking big numbers here. Most publicly traded corporations rack up sales running into the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
However, as an investor, you often encounter companies with a supposedly hot product on the drawing board but with little or no sales. When you buy such companies, you're buying the "story," which may or may not come to pass. That's risky business.
Risk-averse investors should stick with companies racking up at least $500 million in annual sales. Does that limit the field too much? Not really. When I checked recently, more than 1,700 U.S.-based stocks fit the bill.
More-adventurous investors can go lower, but the risk meter goes off the chart when you get below $100 million in 12 months of sales. At the very least, disqualify stocks with less than $10 million in sales in the most recent quarter.
You can find the past four quarters' figures (look for "last 12 months") on each Company Report page, and you'll spot the quarterly figures on the Highlights report in the page's Financial Results section.
You can't apply minimum-sales criteria to banks and similar institutions, because their income comes from interest earned, which usually doesn't show up in the sales totals.
3.Just how profitable is the company?
For stocks, profitability means more than not losing money. Here's why.
Consider two hypothetical companies, company A and company B, both selling widgets for $100 each. After considering all expenses, company A makes $50 on each widget sold, while company B makes $25 per widget. If they both sell a million widgets a year, company A's profit totals $50 million compared with company B's $25 million.
Thus, each year, company A has $25 million more extra cash than company B. It can use that cash to develop new widgets, build more factories, pay dividends, etc. There is no way that company B can keep up with company A's spending without going outside to raise more cash, either by borrowing or by selling more shares. Both alternatives diminish shareholders' earnings.
Obviously, you'd be better off owning stock in company A than in company B, but how do you know which is which?
4.That's where profitability measures come into play.
Return on equity, or ROE, the ratio of a company's 12-month net income to its shareholder equity (book value), is the most widely used profitability gauge. But relying on ROE has a downside. The way the math works, all else being equal, the higher the debt, the higher the ROE.
By contrast, you calculate return on assets, or ROA, by dividing net income by total assets, which includes liabilities. Consequently, all else being equal, the lower the debt, the higher the ROA.
You can see ROAs in the Investment Returns section of the Key Ratios report (under Financial Results). Look for companies with ROAs above 10%. Avoid ROAs below 5%.
Growth investors should pay most attention to the trailing-12-months ROA. However, because value stock candidates may have recently stumbled, value investors should focus on the five-year-average profitability figures.
Cash flow measures the amount of money that moved into or out of a company's bank accounts during a reporting period.
Cash flow is a better profit measure than earnings because it's harder to finagle bank balances than numbers like depreciation schedules that figure into earnings. In fact, many companies that report positive earnings are actually losing money when you count the cash.
Operating cash flow measures the cash flow attributable to the company's main business. You can find it on either the quarterly or annual cash flow statement (see Statements under Financial Results). However, the quarterly statements are timelier. That said, be aware that the quarterly cash flow columns reflect the year-to-date (cumulative) totals, not the individual quarters' results.
You want companies with cash flowing in, not out. So look for positive numbers in the Net Cash from Operating Activities row. Though any positive number is OK, it's best if the operating cash flow exceeds the net income (top line) for the same period.
5.Is the company submerged in debt?
High debt is not always a bad thing. For instance, there's nothing wrong with a company borrowing at 6% if it can put the funds to work earning 12%. Nevertheless, the higher the debt, the more susceptible a company is to rising interest rates. Rising rates result in higher debt-service costs, which subtract from earnings.
The financial leverage ratio (total assets divided by shareholders' equity) is an all-purpose debt gauge. A company with no debt would have a financial leverage ratio of 1, and the higher the ratio, the more debt.
As a rule of thumb, avoid companies with leverage ratios above 5, which is the average of S&P 500 Index ($INX) stocks, and lower is better.
You can't apply the leverage ratio -- or any other debt measure, for that matter -- to banks or other financial organizations. For them, borrowed cash is their inventory. Financial companies always carry high debt compared with companies in other industries.
6.Any bad news lately?
Negative news, such as an earnings shortfall, problems with a new product or an accounting restatement, not only pressure a company's share price but often portend even more such news on the way.
Bad news is the death knell for growth stocks, and growth investors should avoid all such stocks.
Even value types, who seek out stocks beaten down by bad news, should wait on the sidelines until they're reasonably sure that there is no more to come.
Is cash flowing in or out?
Think months, not weeks.
Take a look at the company's latest doings by selecting Recent News at the left of a stock's quote page.
7.Which way are forecasts moving?
There is much to be gained by paying attention to analysts' earnings forecasts.
MSN Money displays consensus earnings forecasts for most stocks. These are the average forecasts from all analysts covering a stock. The consensus numbers tend to move in trends. Why? I'm not sure. One reason may be that after one analyst makes a significant change, others re-examine their models and then revise their estimates in the same direction.
Changes in consensus earnings forecasts move stock prices. A positive forecast trend moves prices up and vice versa.
You can use the Consensus EPS Trend report (under Earnings Estimates) to see current, next-quarter and fiscal-year estimates going back 90 days. Focus on the fiscal-year data and ignore 1-cent changes. Avoid negatively trending stocks -- that is, stocks for which the latest fiscal-year estimates are more than 2 cents below the figures of 90 days ago.
Answering these seven questions will help you make better investing decisions, but they are just a start. Dig deeply and learn all you can. The more you know about your stocks, the better your results.
At the time of publication, Harry Domash owned or controlled shares of the following company mentioned in this column: Icon.
把錢投入股市有可能讓你受到意外的打擊,要避免這種情況就應該做出正確的分析。
價(jia)值(zhi)投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)和(he)成(cheng)長(chang)型(xing)投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe)對(dui)用(yong)什(shen)麼(me)來(lai)評(ping)估(gu)一(yi)支(zhi)股(gu)票(piao)最(zui)重(zhong)要(yao)這(zhe)一(yi)點(dian)總(zong)是(shi)各(ge)持(chi)已(yi)見(jian),但(dan)這(zhe)裏(li)所(suo)說(shuo)的(de)七(qi)個(ge)問(wen)題(ti)是(shi)每(mei)個(ge)投(tou)資(zi)者(zhe),不(bu)管(guan)他(ta)相(xiang)不(bu)相(xiang)信(xin),都(dou)應(ying)該(gai)在(zai)買(mai)股(gu)之(zhi)前(qian)問(wen)的(de)問(wen)題(ti)。
一、這個公司是做什麼的?
你知道這個公司是做什麼來賺錢的嗎?它是屬於高發展行業還是飽和行業(最好的發展時期早已過去)?或者它做的產品按諺語來說是“趕馬車的鞭子”(指完全落伍的行業)?
第一個問題並不象咋聽之下這麼愚蠢,有時我們會太注重分析數據而忘了最重要的事。
如果你在關注的是類似於沃爾瑪或是google的股票,你可能知道這些公司是幹什麼的,但如果你現在開始查看一些不太熟悉的名字,那情況就大不相同了,比如Icon和Knoll公司的股票,你知道它們是做什麼的嗎?
你可以用一分鍾的時間,通過查看MSN財經上的公司報告網頁得出答案。雖然隻有一頁,但報告已很詳細地說明了公司的產品或服務,用淺顯易懂的英語。
報告能給你足夠的信息讓你對公司的產品或服務有所了解。例如,Icon為製藥企業提供臨床試驗外包服務,Knoll製造辦公家具。
了解了這些後你會怎麼做呢?這就不一定了。如果你在尋找高成長性的股票,你可能會對Icon很感興趣而把Knoll當燙手山芋。
而另一方麵,價值投資者知道市場會忽視一些平凡的行業,所以他們會挑選象Knoll這樣的股票,以希望找到一顆被低估的寶石。
二、這個公司的主營產品銷售有多少?
公司的業務就是銷售產品或服務。我們這裏所說的是一個很大的數字,大部分上市企業的年銷售額會達到幾億美元。
danshi,zuoweiyigetouzizhe,niyoushihouhuiyudaoyixiegongsi,miaoshutamenshengchanyizhongyinggaihenshouhuanyingdechanpin,danshijishangxiaoshouhenshaohuozhegenbenmeiyouxiaoshou。dangnimaizheleigongsishi,nimaideshiyige“故事”,可能會成現實也可能不會。這是很冒險的事。
想規避風險的投資者應該堅持選擇年銷售超過5億美元的公司。這個要求下是不是可供選擇的股票太少了?不是的,按最近的情況看,有超過1700家美國公司的股票符合這個要求。
比較激進的投資者可以把這個數字定得低一些, 但是12個月的銷售額低於1億美元的公司風險就很難預測了。不過說到底,至少至少,不能選擇最近一個季度的銷售額低於1000萬美元的公司股票。
你可以在每個公司報告網頁上找到前四個季度的數據(查找“最近十二個月”),在“財務狀況”的“重要報告”中可以看到每個季度的數據。
不過這個最小銷售額標準不適用於銀行或類似公司,因為他們的主要收入來自利息收入,通常不在銷售額中體現出來。
三、這個公司有多賺錢?
對於股票來說,盈利性比不虧損重要得多,為什麼呢?
假定有兩個公司,A公司和B公司,都以100美元一件的價格銷售產品。除去所有成本後,A公司每件產品可得到50美元利潤,而B公司隻能得到20美元利潤。如果它們一年都銷售100萬件產品,A公司利潤是5000萬美元而B公司隻有2500萬美元。
因此,每年A公司比B公司多得到2500萬美元的現金,它可以用這些現金去開發新產品,建更多的工廠,支付股息等等。而B公司完全不能跟A公司一樣花錢,B公司要得到更多現金,隻能靠借款或出售股票,這兩者都會使股票持有者的收益減少。
顯然,你買A公司的股票比買B公司好。但是你怎麼知道哪個公司是A公司,哪個公司是B公司呢?這裏,盈利性指標就有作用了。
淨資產收益率,又稱ROE,指公司十二個月的淨收入與股東權益(帳麵價值)的比率,是用得最多的盈利性指標。但是依賴ROE會有不足。從數學角度來說,假設其它條件一樣,負債越多,ROE越高。
相反,我們來計算資產收益率,又稱ROA,指淨收入除以總資產(包括負債)。結果是:假設其它條件一樣,負債越少,ROA越高。
你可以在“投資收益”欄的主要比率報告中找到ROA(在財務狀況下麵)。尋找ROA高於10%的公司,避開ROA低於5%的公司。
注重增長的投資者最關注的是最近12個月的ROA,但因為價值型股票有可能目前情況並不好,所以價值投資者應該關注五年平均盈利數據。
四、公司的現金流是流入還是流出?
現金流衡量的是一個公司在報告期內從公司銀行帳戶中流入或流出的金額。
現(xian)金(jin)流(liu)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)比(bi)收(shou)益(yi)更(geng)好(hao)的(de)衡(heng)量(liang)利(li)潤(run)的(de)指(zhi)標(biao),因(yin)為(wei)在(zai)銀(yin)行(xing)存(cun)款(kuan)數(shu)目(mu)上(shang)造(zao)假(jia)比(bi)在(zai)另(ling)一(yi)些(xie)計(ji)入(ru)收(shou)益(yi)的(de)數(shu)目(mu),如(ru)折(zhe)舊(jiu)表(biao)上(shang)造(zao)假(jia)要(yao)難(nan)。事(shi)實(shi)上(shang),如(ru)果(guo)你(ni)計(ji)算(suan)一(yi)下(xia)現(xian)金(jin),一(yi)些(xie)報(bao)告(gao)上(shang)說(shuo)很(hen)賺(zhuan)錢(qian)的(de)公(gong)司(si)實(shi)際(ji)上(shang)是(shi)虧(kui)損(sun)的(de)。
經營性現金流衡量的是因公司主營業務需要引起的現金流動。你可以找到季度或年現金流量表(在財務狀況下麵有“流量表”)。但是季度性的流量表更及時,要知道它表明的季度現金流量是指從年初至今的累計值,而不隻是這個季度的狀況。
你ni肯ken定ding希xi望wang公gong司si的de現xian金jin是shi流liu入ru而er不bu是shi流liu出chu的de,所suo以yi在zai經jing營ying性xing收shou入ru裏li找zhao一yi下xia現xian金jin淨jing額e的de正zheng值zhi。雖sui然ran任ren何he正zheng值zhi都dou是shi好hao的de,但dan如ru果guo經jing營ying性xing現xian金jin流liu在zai同tong一yi時shi期qi超chao過guo淨jing收shou入ru(在表的第一行)是最好的。
五、公司是否陷入債務中?
高負債並不總是壞事。比如說,如果一個公司借了6%利率的貸款用於生產,可以獲得12%的收益,這樣的負債就完全不是壞事。但是,負債越多,越容易受到利益上漲的影響。利率上漲會導致利息成本上升,收益減少。
“財務杠杆比率”(總資產除以股東權益)是一個通用的債務指標。一個沒有債務的公司財務杠杆比率為1,比率越高,負債越多。
憑經驗來看,要避開比率高於5的公司,這是500種標準普爾指數股票的平均值,然後越低越好。
財(cai)務(wu)杠(gang)杆(gan)比(bi)率(lv)或(huo)是(shi)其(qi)它(ta)負(fu)債(zhai)指(zhi)標(biao)都(dou)不(bu)適(shi)用(yong)於(yu)銀(yin)行(xing)或(huo)其(qi)它(ta)金(jin)融(rong)企(qi)業(ye)。對(dui)它(ta)們(men)來(lai)說(shuo),借(jie)錢(qian)是(shi)它(ta)們(men)的(de)投(tou)資(zi)。金(jin)融(rong)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)負(fu)債(zhai)總(zong)是(shi)比(bi)其(qi)它(ta)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)公(gong)司(si)高(gao)。
六、公司最近有什麼壞消息嗎?
負麵消息,比如收入下滑、新產品遇到問題或會計報表修改,不僅僅會對公司的股價帶來壓力,而且常常會預示著前麵還有更多這樣的消息出現。
壞消息對成長型股票來說是喪鍾,所以注重成長性的投資者要避開所有這類股票。
即使是喜歡從被壞消息打擊的股票中選股的價值投資者,都應該保持旁觀,直到確信這種壞消息不會再來。
考慮幾個月內的消息,而不是幾個星期內。
可以通過股票報價頁麵的“最新消息”欄看一下公司最近發生做的事。
七、預計公司會往哪個方向發展?
關心分析師對收益的預測,你可以得到很多信息。
MSNcaijingshangduidabufengupiaodeshouyidouyouyigeyuce,zheshisuoyoufenxishiduizhegegupiaoyucedepingjunzhi。zhegeshuzhiwangwanghuichaoyigefangxiangfazhan。weishenme?woyebuqueding。yexuyuanyinzhiyishiyiweifenxishidechuyigemingxiandebianhuahou,qitarenhuizhongxinjianzhatamendefenximoxing,ranhouxiangtongyigefangxiangxiuzhengtamendeguji。
你可以用“每股盈利趨勢預測報告”(在收益預測下)看一下90天來分析師對目前、下季度和會計年度的預測。把注意力放在會計年度每股盈利數據,不要在意一美分的變化。避開盈利趨勢向下的股票--也就是最近的年度每股盈利預測比90天前的數據降低2美分以上的股票。
總結:wenzheqigewentikeyibangzhunigenghaodizuochutouzijueding,danzhezhishiyigekaishi。jinnikenengdishenwaxiaqu,lejiegengduo。duigupiaolejieyueduo,ninengdedaodejieguoyuehao。
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