Email has had a good run as king of communications. But its reign is over.
In its place, a new generation of services is starting to take hold -- services like Twitter and Facebook and countless others vying for a piece of the new world. And just as email did more than a decade ago, this shift promises to profoundly rewrite the way we communicate -- in ways we can only begin to imagine.
We all still use email, of course. But email was better suited to the way we used to use the Internet -- logging off and on, checking our messages in bursts. Now, we are always connected, whether we are sitting at a desk or on a mobile phone. The always-on connection, in turn, has created a host of new ways to communicate that are much faster than email, and more fun.
Why wait for a response to an email when you get a quicker answer over instant messaging? Thanks to Facebook, some questions can be answered without asking them. You don't need to ask a friend whether she has left work, if she has updated her public 'status' on the site telling the world so. Email, stuck in the era of attachments, seems boring compared to services like Google Wave, currently in test phase, which allows users to share photos by dragging and dropping them from a desktop into a Wave, and to enter comments in near real time.
Little wonder that while email continues to grow, other types of communication services are growing far faster. In August 2009, 276.9 million people used email across the U.S., several European countries, Australia and Brazil, according to Nielsen Co., up 21% from 229.2 million in August 2008. But the number of users on social-networking and other community sites jumped 31% to 301.5 million people.
'The whole idea of this email service isn't really quite as significant anymore when you can have many, many different types of messages and files and when you have this all on the same type of networks,' says Alex Bochannek, curator at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, Calif.
So, how will these new tools change the way we communicate? Let's start with the most obvious: They make our interactions that much faster.
Years ago, we were frustrated if it took a few days for a letter to arrive. A couple of years ago, we'd complain about a half-hour delay in getting an email. Today, we gripe about it taking an extra few seconds for a text message to go through. In a few months, we may be complaining that our cellphones aren't automatically able to send messages to friends within a certain distance, letting them know we're nearby. (A number of services already do this.)
These new services also make communicating more frequent and informal -- more like a blog comment or a throwaway aside, rather than a crafted email sent to one person. No need to spend time writing a long email to your half-dozen closest friends about how your vacation went. Now those friends, if they're interested, can watch it unfold in real time online. Instead of sending a few emails a week to a handful of friends, you can send dozens of messages a day to hundreds of people who know you, or just barely do.
Consider Twitter. The service allows users to send 140-character messages to people who have subscribed to see them, called followers. So instead of sending an email to friends announcing that you just got a new job, you can just tweet it for all the people who have chosen to 'follow' you to see. You can create links to particular users in messages by entering @ followed by their user name or send private 'direct messages' through the system by typing d and the user name.
Facebook is part of the trend, too. Users post status updates that show up in their friends' 'streams.' They can also post links to content and comment on it. No in-box required.
Dozens of other companies, from AOL and Yahoo Inc. to start-ups like Yammer Inc., are building products based on the same theme.
David Liu, an executive at AOL, calls it replacing the in-box with 'a river that continues to flow as you dip into it.'
But the speed and ease of communication cut both ways. While making communication more frequent, they can also make it less personal and intimate. Communicating is becoming so easy that the recipient knows how little time and thought was required of the sender. Yes, your half-dozen closest friends can read your vacation updates. But so can your 500 other 'friends.' And if you know all these people are reading your updates, you might say a lot less than you would otherwise.
Another obvious downside to the constant stream: It's a constant stream.
That can make it harder to determine the importance of various messages. When people can more easily fire off all sorts of messages -- from updates about their breakfast to questions about the evening's plans -- being able to figure out which messages are truly important, or even which warrant a response, can be difficult. Information overload can lead some people to tune out messages altogether.
Such noise makes us even more dependent on technology to help us communicate. Without software to help filter and organize based on factors we deem relevant, we'd drown in the deluge.
Perhaps the biggest change that these email successors bring is more of a public profile for users. In the email world, you are your name followed by a 'dot-com.' That's it. In the new messaging world, you have a higher profile, packed with data you want to share and possibly some you don't.
Such a public profile has its pluses and minuses. It can draw the people communicating closer, allowing them to exchange not only text but also all sorts of personal information, even facial cues. You know a lot about the person you are talking to, even before you've ever exchanged a single word.
電子郵件作為通信之王經曆了飛速發展。不過它的統治時代已經終結。
新一代服務開始取而代之,比如Twitter、Facebook和其他無數爭著想在新世界中分一杯羹的服務。如同10多年前電子郵件的出現一樣,這一轉變有望深刻地改寫人們通信的方式──以我們剛剛能夠開始想像得到的方式。
當然,我們仍會使用電子郵件。不過電子郵件更適合以往人們使用互聯網的方式──隔三差五地登錄、登出、查zha看kan信xin息xi。如ru今jin,我wo們men總zong是shi聯lian著zhe網wang,無wu論lun我wo們men是shi坐zuo在zai桌zhuo子zi前qian還hai是shi用yong手shou機ji。這zhe種zhong總zong是shi聯lian網wang的de狀zhuang態tai產chan生sheng了le一yi係xi列lie新xin的de通tong信xin方fang式shi,比bi電dian子zi郵you件jian要yao快kuai的de多duo,也ye有you趣qu的de多duo。
如果你可以通過及時消息更快地得到答案,為什麼還要等待電子郵件回複呢?由於Facebook的出現,有些問題不必問就已經知道答案了。如果一位朋友更新了Facebook上的公開狀態,告訴全世界她已經下班了,你就無需再問她了。與目前處於測試階段的穀歌Wave等服務相比,拖著"附件"的電子郵件看起來要枯燥得多。通過穀歌Wave,用戶可以把照片從桌麵拖放到Wave中,與別人分享照片,並輸入評論。
難怪在電子郵件繼續增長之際,其他類型的通信服務卻在以更高的速度增長。據尼爾森(Nielsen Co.)的數據,2009年8月,美國、歐洲的幾個國家、澳大利亞和巴西有2.769億電子郵件用戶,較2008年8月的2.292億增長了21%.而社交網站和其他社群網站的用戶數量飆升了31%,至3.015億。
加州電腦曆史博物館(Computer History Museum)館長伯契納克(Alex Bochannek)說,當你可以有很多很多不同種類的信息和文件,當你在同一種網絡上擁有這一切時,電子郵件服務的概念就不再那麼重要了。
那麼,這些新的工具將如何改變我們通信的方式?讓我們先看看最一目了然的方麵:它們使我們的交流互動更快了。
很(hen)多(duo)年(nian)前(qian),如(ru)果(guo)信(xin)件(jian)要(yao)幾(ji)天(tian)才(cai)能(neng)到(dao)達(da),我(wo)們(men)會(hui)感(gan)到(dao)沮(ju)喪(sang)不(bu)已(yi)。幾(ji)年(nian)前(qian),如(ru)果(guo)電(dian)子(zi)郵(you)件(jian)接(jie)收(shou)遲(chi)了(le)半(ban)小(xiao)時(shi),我(wo)們(men)就(jiu)會(hui)抱(bao)怨(yuan)連(lian)連(lian)。而(er)今(jin)天(tian),如(ru)果(guo)一(yi)條(tiao)文(wen)字(zi)信(xin)息(xi)的(de)傳(chuan)送(song)多(duo)花(hua)了(le)幾(ji)秒(miao)鍾(zhong)的(de)時(shi)間(jian),我(wo)們(men)就(jiu)會(hui)發(fa)牢(lao)騷(sao)。幾(ji)個(ge)月(yue)後(hou),我(wo)們(men)可(ke)能(neng)會(hui)抱(bao)怨(yuan)自(zi)己(ji)的(de)手(shou)機(ji)不(bu)能(neng)自(zi)動(dong)地(di)向(xiang)一(yi)定(ding)距(ju)離(li)內(nei)的(de)朋(peng)友(you)發(fa)短(duan)信(xin),讓(rang)他(ta)們(men)知(zhi)道(dao)我(wo)們(men)就(jiu)在(zai)附(fu)近(jin)。(已經有很多服務提供這樣的功能了。)
這些新的服務還會使通信更頻繁和隨意──更geng像xiang是shi博bo客ke評ping論lun或huo隨sui便bian說shuo出chu的de話hua,而er不bu是shi發fa給gei一yi個ge人ren的de精jing雕diao細xi琢zhuo的de電dian子zi郵you件jian。無wu需xu花hua費fei時shi間jian給gei你ni那na幾ji個ge最zui好hao的de朋peng友you寫xie長chang長chang的de電dian子zi郵you件jian,談tan論lun你ni的de假jia期qi過guo的de如ru何he。如ru今jin,如ru果guo這zhe些xie朋peng友you感gan興xing趣qu的de話hua,他ta們men可ke以yi實shi時shi地di在zai網wang上shang了le解jie你ni的de度du假jia生sheng活huo。你ni不bu是shi每mei周zhou向xiang屈qu指zhi可ke數shu的de幾ji個ge朋peng友you發fa送song幾ji封feng電dian子zi郵you件jian,而er是shi可ke以yi每mei天tian向xiang數shu百bai個ge認ren識shi你ni或huo和he你ni半ban生sheng不bu熟shu的de人ren發fa送song幾ji十shi條tiao消xiao息xi。
你可以考慮用Twitter.這個服務使用戶可以向注冊閱讀用戶(即關注者,followers)發送140個字符的信息。因此,你不用向朋友發封電子郵件,宣布你剛剛找到了一份新工作,你隻要向所有選擇"關注(follow)"的人"推(tweet)"一下就可以了。你可以在信息中創建特殊用戶鏈接,隻要輸入@再加上他們的用戶名,也可以通過輸入"d"加用戶名通過係統發送私人"直接消息".
Facebook也是這一趨勢的一部分。用戶可以更新狀態,顯示在朋友的"流"中。他們還可以發內容鏈接、對其進行評論。無需收件箱。
其他幾十個企業都開始建立基於同樣主題的產品,包括美國在線(AOL)、雅虎(Yahoo)和Yammer這樣的初創企業。
美國在線的一位高管David Liu說,收件箱的替代品好像是"在你踏入其中,一條仍繼續流淌的河".
buguo,tongxindesuduheshushixingyeshishuangrenjian。jinguankeyishitongxinbiandegengpinfan,queyekenengshitabiandegengquefasimixing。tongxinkaishibianderucijiandan,shoujianrenzhidaofajianrenzhixuhenshaodeshijianhesikao。bucuo,ninajigezuihaodepengyoukeyiyuedunidedujiaqingkuang。buguonideqita500個"朋友"也可以。如果你知道所有這些人都在閱讀你的更新,你可能就不會說那麼多了。
持續不斷流動的信息有著另外一個顯而易見的不利因素:它是持續不斷的。
zhekenenghuijiadapanduangezhongxinxizhongyaoxingdenandu。dangrenmenkeyigengrongyidifasongcongzaocandaoyeshenghuojihuadegezhonggeyangdexinxishi,nenggoupanduanchunaxiexinxishiqueshizhongyaode,huonaxiexuyaohuifu,doubushiqingeryijudeshi。guoliangdexinxikenenghuidaozhiyixierengancuiduiquanbuxinxidouzhizhibuli。
這樣的"噪聲"shiwomengengjiayilaiyujishulaibangzhujiaoliu。ruguomeiyouruanjianbangzhuwomengenjuwomenrenweixiangguandeyinsuduixinxijinxingguolvhezuzhi,womenjiuhuiyanmeizaihailiangdexinxizhong。
或許電子郵件的這些接班人帶來的最大變化是用戶的公開信息增多。在電子郵件的世界裏,你就是你的名字加上".com".僅此而已。在新的通信世界裏,你的個人信息增多了,充滿你希望與人分享的數據,可能還有一些你不希望與人分享的信息。
zheyangdegongkaixinxiyouliyeyoubi。takeyirangrenmengengjindijiaoliu,shitamenbujinkeyijiaoliuwenzi,haiyougezhonggeyangdegerenxinxi,shenzhishimianbubiaoqing。nihuitongguohulianwangfeichanglejieheniduihuaderen,shenzhishizainimenzhenzhengkaikoushuodiyigezizhiqian。
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